As speculation mounts about the possibility of Donald Trump winning a second term as President of the United States, African leaders and policymakers are closely watching how his policies toward the continent might evolve. Trump’s first term was marked by unpredictability, with moments of both cooperation and tension in Africa-U.S. relations. A second term could present both challenges and opportunities for African nations, but there are key themes that are likely to define his approach based on his first tenure, campaign rhetoric, and broader geopolitical trends.
1. An “America First” Foreign Policy
Trump’s foreign policy during his first term was largely characterized by an “America First” stance, focused on prioritizing U.S. interests over multilateral cooperation. For Africa, this meant a more transactional approach, where U.S. engagement with the continent was often shaped by security concerns, trade deals, and resource extraction rather than broader development or diplomatic outreach.
In his second term, African leaders can expect this policy to continue. Trump may push for economic partnerships that offer immediate, tangible benefits to the U.S., such as access to Africa’s natural resources or new markets for American goods. However, this might come at the cost of broader commitments to humanitarian aid or international development programs, unless they can be framed in a way that benefits American companies and interests.
2. Security and Counterterrorism Focus
A key area where Trump’s administration was engaged in Africa during his first term was counterterrorism efforts. U.S. military presence in countries like Somalia, Niger, and the Sahel region expanded in response to growing threats from groups like Al-Shabaab, ISIS, and Boko Haram. Trump’s focus on fighting terrorism and militant groups in Africa was part of his broader emphasis on global security, often in the form of military assistance or intelligence sharing.
In a second term, African leaders can expect continued U.S. military involvement, particularly in the Horn of Africa and West Africa. However, Trump’s skepticism of multilateral institutions like the United Nations or NATO may mean a preference for bilateral agreements with individual African countries, rather than broader regional cooperation.
Moreover, Trump may be inclined to push for more self-reliance in African security, encouraging African nations to take a leading role in addressing their own security challenges while potentially reducing American military footprint or relying more on private contractors.
3. Increased Competition with China and Russia
Throughout his presidency, Trump viewed the growing influence of China and Russia in Africa as a strategic challenge to U.S. power. African leaders can expect this rivalry to intensify during a second term, with Trump likely continuing to focus on reducing Chinese influence in Africa, particularly in infrastructure development and trade.
Trump may seek to offer more competitive trade deals or investment partnerships in areas such as energy, mining, and agriculture. However, Trump’s push for “America First” policies could mean that these deals might be less about development assistance and more about securing U.S. access to critical resources, such as oil and rare minerals that are vital for emerging technologies.
For African countries that have aligned with China for major infrastructure projects, Trump might offer alternative financing but with an emphasis on debt transparency and contract renegotiations that align with U.S. interests. He could also intensify pressure on African governments to limit their ties with Beijing and Moscow, framing it as part of a larger geopolitical struggle.
4. Reduced Emphasis on Democracy and Human Rights
One of the hallmarks of Trump’s foreign policy was a reluctance to promote democracy and human rights abroad, especially when it conflicted with U.S. interests. Trump often emphasized economic and security priorities over democratic reforms in countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Zimbabwe, where he was more willing to overlook issues like authoritarianism or human rights abuses in favor of securing strategic alliances.
African leaders who prioritize stability over democracy might find Trump’s approach more congenial. Authoritarian leaders or those with shaky democratic credentials may find in Trump a leader who is less likely to pressure them on human rights or governance issues, as long as they are seen as cooperative on issues like security, trade, or counterterrorism.
However, leaders in countries where democratic backsliding or human rights violations are prominent may not find much support from the U.S. government under a second Trump term. Instead, Trump’s rhetoric might focus on partnerships with countries that are seen as geopolitical allies, even if their governance records fall short of democratic standards.
5. Limited Engagement on Climate Change and Global Health
Trump’s first term saw a reduction in U.S. commitment to climate change and global health initiatives, with the U.S. pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement and cutting funding for global health organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO). Given Africa’s vulnerability to climate change and the ongoing challenges related to health crises like HIV/AIDS, malaria, and Ebola, African leaders may find that Trump’s second term offers limited engagement on these global challenges.
Instead, Trump may push for more private-sector-driven solutions to health and climate change, favoring market-based approaches rather than multilateral agreements or humanitarian initiatives. This could limit the ability of African countries to access the kind of multilateral cooperation or development aid that is essential for tackling the region’s most pressing challenges.
6. Trade Deals and Economic Relations
While Trump’s trade policies were often protectionist during his first term, African leaders can expect some movement toward bilateral trade agreements in his second term, especially if they can offer favorable terms for U.S. businesses. Trump may push for preferential trade arrangements, potentially replacing programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants tariff-free access to U.S. markets for certain goods from sub-Saharan African countries.
However, these trade deals may be contingent on African nations making specific economic concessions that benefit U.S. industries. Trump’s desire to reduce the U.S. trade deficit may lead to a focus on securing better terms for U.S. companies, particularly in the energy, technology, and mining sectors.
Conclusion
African leaders should expect Donald Trump’s second term to be marked by a continuation of his transactional, America-first approach. While there may be some positive outcomes for countries willing to align with U.S. priorities—particularly in terms of trade and security—those looking for broad development assistance or international cooperation on issues like climate change and human rights may find Trump’s policies less favorable. African nations will need to carefully navigate a second Trump term, balancing relationships with the U.S. against the backdrop of growing competition with China, Russia, and the changing dynamics of global geopolitics.