South Africa is actively pursuing a significant expansion of its economic relationship with Russia — even aiming to double bilateral trade — amid deeper BRICS integration and evolving global strategic priorities.
🤝 Recent High-Level Engagement
During a visit to Moscow in mid-June 2025, Vice President Paul Mashatile and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin held discussions focusing on energy, agriculture, and finance. Mashatile made a bold pitch: “We want trade between Russia and South Africa to double.” He portrayed South Africa as “the gateway to the continent of Africa,” offering access to a market of one billion people, as leverage for expanding Russian investment.
Simultaneously, International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola chaired the 18th session of the Mixed Intergovernmental Committee on Trade and Economic Cooperation in Moscow, co-hosted by Sergey Lavrov. The meeting reaffirmed commitments to deepen trade ties, diversify into new tech and infrastructure sectors, and explore settling bills in national currencies.
📊 Trade: Growing, Yet Imbalanced
Despite a solid political partnership, trade between the two countries has been modest and imbalanced:
- In 2022, bilateral trade reached roughly US $1.3 billion— a 16.4% increase over 2021 — with South Africa importing approximately $548 million in goods such as fertilisers and chemicals, and exporting $283 million, largely citrus fruit.
- Additional data indicate a near 30% surge in trade during early 2023, driven by agriculture — but analysts urge caution, pointing out the potential for data overstretch and the missed opportunity in correcting the persistent trade imbalance.
🔋 Energy and Infrastructure Ambitions
Energy cooperation is a key driver of the push to double trade:
- Gwede Mantashe, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, confirmed South Africa’s openness to Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly to feed the revival of the Mossel Bay refinery, which Gazprombank Africa was selected to modernise in late 2023.
- The country seeks to decarbonise its power sector by shifting from coal to gas, making LNG partnerships increasingly strategic.
🌍 Strategy within BRICS
South Africa’s approach is deeply anchored in BRICS solidarity:
- Deputy Trade Minister Zuko Godlimpi underscored the goal of creating resilient, diversified supply chains across agriculture and energy through BRICS, and leveraging technology transfer from Russia to support the green transition.
- Moreover, embracing national currency settlements aligns with BRICS efforts to reduce dependency on Western financial systems.
⚠️ Risks and Criticisms
However, there are several risks and critiques to consider:
- Trade remains a tiny fraction of South Africa’s total trade—accounting for less than 1% of turnover—while logistical challenges such as shipping constraints and Western sanctions complicate expansion.
- Financial analysts warn that entering deeper deals with Russia may undermine relations with Western partners and expose the economy to sanctions spillover or greylisting risk.
- There are internal concerns about transparency and unequal benefit distribution, especially around energy infrastructure partnerships such as the PetroSA–Gazprombank deal.
✅ Outlook
South Africa’s ambition to double its trade with Russia reflects a balancing act: deepening ties with BRICS allies and diversifying its trade, while striving to avoid financial or diplomatic fallout. Whether these efforts will translate into real, sustainable economic gains depends on how effectively Pretoria manages logistical bottlenecks, sanctions obstacles, and Western scrutiny. For now, the drive seems less about replacing Western partners and more about enhancing South Africa’s negotiating range on the global stage.
